Quick Read
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SpaceX (SPCX) AI revenue reached $2.56B in Q2 versus $5.25B from other segments, requiring a doubling to meet Musk’s September crossover deadline.
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Goldman Sachs (GS) projects $15.6B in SpaceX AI revenue for 2026, but Alphabet (GOOGL) can exit its cloud contract with just 90 days’ notice.
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Elon Musk set a date. He released a 30-minute all-hands video on X on August 11, 2026, which Johnny Rice of The Motley Fool reported on. In it, the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) chief told employees: “Probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month.”
Musk opened with “probably,” switched to “definitely,” then returned to “probably in September.” He stated the crossover with confidence but hedged timing. September has ended, so investors can check this forecast against reported numbers.
What the Crossover Required
Johnny Rice cited SpaceX’s second-quarter report: total revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92%. Per Rice, AI contributed $2.56 billion, while Connectivity and Space brought in $5.25 billion combined. AI needed to more than double, assuming the rest of SpaceX stopped growing.
The rest of SpaceX kept growing. The Q2 earnings release filed with the SEC shows Connectivity revenue of $4.291 billion, up 66%. Starlink’s enterprise and government line rose 108%. AI revenue rose 247%, but its $367 million advertising line fell year over year.
On the August 4 earnings call, a SpaceX executive said the company had “contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year.” That revenue starts after Musk’s deadline.
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Musk’s Bigger Number Dwarfs Wall Street’s
In the same video, Musk set a target of 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of next year. He valued that capacity at roughly $30 to $50 per watt. From those two figures, he derived annual AI revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion by 2028. On the earnings call, he described the per-watt figure this way: “This is just a guess.”