Updated Oct. 9, 2026, 1:09 p.m. ET
For decades, improving the accuracy of track forecasts for dangerous hurricanes like Isaias plodded along at a slow and steady pace. Improvement in intensity forecasting was even slower.
People in harm’s way could go to bed at night expecting a Category 2 storm the next day and wake up to a Category 5 knocking at their door. Gradually, the National Hurricane Center also began to see progress in that too.